| myclob's profileIdea Stock ExchangePhotosBlogLists | Help |
|
May 17 IraqThe countries of; Columbia, Jamaica, and Venezuela, and the US cities; Washington DC, Atlanta, and New Orleans all have higher rates of violent death than Iraq. It is safer in Iraq than Washington DC. It is safer in Iraq than Atlanta. It is safer in Iraq than New Orleans. It is safer in Iraq than Columbia. It is safer in Iraq than Jamaica. It is safer in Iraq than Venezuela. Propaganda works. Lies, repeated often enough, are perceived as truth. That's why we have an American populace right now that truly believes we are losing one of the best-fought and successful military actions in history. M I I< E l-- A I--I I8 MyClob __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around http://mail.yahoo.com May 12 TruthAll truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident. - Arthur Schopenhauer M I I< E l-- A I--I I8 MyClob __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around http://mail.yahoo.com May 07 New gruophttp://groups.google.com/group/Logical-Debate About Logical Debate: Don't just state conclusions; list LOGICAL reasons that lead you to that conclusion. Don’t get mad if your called names, its just debate. Don’t talk about the way you are treated, talk about substance. No chit-chat. We don’t care about you, just what do you think and why. USE LOGIC and Reason! http://groups.google.com/group/Logical-Debate M I I< E l-- A I--I I8 MyClob __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around http://mail.yahoo.com March 25 prediction marketsI'm concerned that we, the proponents of prediction markets are severely limiting ourselves when we say that the purpose is to resolve "questions of science, technology, and public policy." Don't get me wrong. These are all noble ideas, but my goal is different. I want to represent the actual strength of an idea or belief with quantifiable analysis. What am I talking about? I’m
not just interested in predicting the future, but figuring out exactly where we are now. For instance if you look at all the prediction market websites, you will see if bets will happen by a certain date. That is not the way the real stock market is set up. In the real stock market people don’t bet weather or not Microsoft will make X amount of money by Y date. People don’t bet weather or not Bill Gates will die, retire, or star in American Idle by this certain date. In the real stock market, people buy Microsoft stock, because they think it is more valuable that it’s current price. I’m not just interested in resolving “questions of science, technology, and public policy” I want to know how many people are willing to bet money that the belief in artificial intelligence will increase or decrease over a certain stock price. I want to be able to invest in Darwinism or Christianity at different stock prices.
Yahoo! Messenger with Voice. Make PC-to-Phone Calls to the US (and 30+ countries) for 2¢/min or less. March 19 LegacyBefore you die you should give each of your children a document with your beliefs and why you believe them. You should then ask your kids to add reasons to agree or disagree, but at least that will give them a good place to start.
Yahoo! Mail Bring photos to life! New PhotoMail makes sharing a breeze. January 05 committee
Reasons to agree: Anyone can come up with reasons to disagree with even the best ideas. A typical committee is not set up were reasons to agree are weighed against reasons to disagree, with a thorough investigation of the value of each reason. An idea is brought up. Then a couple of people say reasons to disagree, and then when people feel confused, no action is taken. November 29 A new website:Someone sent me links to websites that are similar to mine. This is pretty close, however you can not submit reasons to disagree with your own ideas, and you can not submit multiple reasons to disagree with other people's ideas.
But it still is the closest thing to what I want.
November 18 The Kansas City school boardThe Kansas City school board did not "encourage" children to question evolution, it just allowed the SCIENTIFIC FACTS that can not be explained by the THEORY of evolution to be presented.
In other words they are presenting the "THEORY" of evolution as a "THEORY". Even conservatives like George Will seem to ignore this fact. He said their actions send us back to the middle ages, but it is the other side who would have us live in a middle-age-like society when their is only one "party line" and those who want to allow debate are persecuted.
No one one is trying to say that evolution didn't happen, they are just trying to allow the SCIENTIFIC findings that contradict evolution to be published. But apparently it is blasphemous to question the religion of evolution, and it's infallible atheist priests.
October 29 It's not too complicatedSome people may think that it is too complicated to list all of the reasons to agree or disagree with ideas. I have 3 reasons to disagree with this assertion.
First, Einstein said things should be made as simple as possible, but not more so. Issues may be complicated, but if we never organize all of the reasons to agree or disagree with each idea, then we are refusing to live according to logic, and reason, and we are living in our own world and shutting out the truth.
Second, it's not that bad when you get use to it. It's kind of like an outline.
Third, you are able to save a lot of time with the internet, because fundamental beliefs can be used as reasons to agree or disagree with more than one idea. This allows you to outline all of the reasons to agree or disagree with that fundamental belief, and then re-use that effort on all of those separate issues. October 19 The people that broadcast sports on TV are idiots.Reasons to agree
Reasons to disagree
PS
If you have never been to one of my blogs before, you will soon notice that I tend to argue with myself. It's not that I am schizophrenic, it's just that I think their are good reasons to agree & disagree with each idea. I don't blog because I want to convince people of my ideas. I have made up my mind on very few things. I just want to share my reasons for agreeing or disagreeing with different things. It seems to me, that if I post things in the "reasons to agree" or "disagree" format that it will make me more approachable. It won't be my side vs. their side, it will become both of us trying to figure the issue out together.
I also have an alternative motive in posting things in a reasons to agree & disagree format. I believe that some day an algorithm will be able to promote good reasons to agree with an idea, based on the number of reasons they have to agree with them. And these reasons will be sorted out and ranked based on the number of reasons they have to agree with them.
Yahoo! Music Unlimited - Access over 1 million songs. Try it free. October 17 Dred the ex-friendly cow![]() Me and my cow
Dred the ex-friendly cow:
I am trying to paint a picture of me being a sophisticated-Idahoan. Me telling stories that involve the use of the barter system may not be a dandy way for me to implement the sophisticated-Idahoan campaign. Oh well.
My Dad taught drivers-ed during the summer time. Some guy gave us a baby cow instead of paying us with regular money. So we called the calf "Dred" for Drivers Ed.
Dred was a childhood pet of mine. For a cow, he made a very good pet. I remember having a leash and walking him around the pasture. When we installed an electric fence we put some food on it to draw the cow to it.
We did not realize how long it would take for the electric elements to warm up. By the time the fence turned on the cow had wrapped his tough completely around the food and was trying to swallow it.
It did not take long for Dred to realize the basic operations of the electric fence. Dred jumped with such surprise that he nearly knocked over the fence. Needless to say Dred was never the same after that, and never seemed to trust those who witnessed what has come to be known as the "shockening".
Yahoo! Music Unlimited - Access over 1 million songs. Try it free. October 16 Bolingbrook, IlBolingbrook should elect myclob as their next mayor. (reasons to agree & disagree) Bolingbrook is a good place to live. (reasons to agree & disagree) Bolingbrook is a good place to live.
Reasons to agree:
Reasons to disagree
Yahoo! Music Unlimited - Access over 1 million songs. Try it free. October 10 Good Idea Promoting AlgorithmProblem you are solving: Reasons to agree & disagree are not organized. Good ideas are not promoted. Bad ideas are not killed. Algorithms are not used to their fullest potential. Time is wasted on line. People have to start at ground zero when they want to find all of the reasons to agree or disagree with an idea, because you don't have websites with both sides, you tend to just have pro and con websites.
Text of your social invention: Instead of having people rate an idea on a scale from 1 to 10 using current methods (Feasibility, originality, Humor, and Overall) we should let an algorithm do our dirty work for us. It would be similar to Google’s algorithm, but instead of just promoting good websites, it would actually promote good ideas.
A good idea has one of two things. It either has more reasons to agree with it than reasons to disagree, or it has better reasons to agree with it, that reasons to disagree.
An algorithm could solve the first problem very easily, if we created a system where the algorithm can count the number of reason that people submit as reasons to agree with an idea, verses reasons to disagree with that idea.
An algorithm can not tell if an idea has “better” reasons to agree with it than reasons to disagree with it. Or can it? I believe it can, eventually. What I mean by eventually is that on the first level an idea might have lots of stupid reasons to agree with it and just a few very good reasons to disagree with it. So in other words it is a bad idea. And so my algorithm would be wrong, if it just counted the number of reasons to agree vs. the number of reasons to disagree. However, if the algorithm took into account the reasons to agree or disagree with each of the reasons to agree or disagree, I do not think my algorithm would ever be wrong. Those “good reasons” to disagree would have good reasons to agree with them and relatively few “good reasons” to disagree with them. And if not the reasons to agree with them, would have good reasons to agree with them.
Well, has anyone else ever done anything similar to my idea before? Yes, a little company called Google, maybe you have heard of them. The use a very similar algorithm in that it counts all of the links to a website as votes for that website. And then websites that have lots of links to them are given more weight, so that the things that they link to will be considered good websites.
In my algorithm, good reasons will carry more weight, because they have lots of reasons to agree with them, just like with Google, good websites carry more weight because they have lots of websites that link to them.
Discussion forums would work better if they let users organize their post.
If the different aspects of debate were organized, an algorithm could be made to promote good ideas.
The algorithm would pay attention to the quantity of reasons that agree or disagree with the idea. The side with more reasons to agree would get more points than the other side. Just like when you fill out a list of reasons to or not to do certain activities, you tend to choose the side with more reasons to agree. The algorithm could also pay attention to the number of people who agree or disagree with the idea. The hope of democracy is that the majority of people won't make terrible decisions. This would be more likely when people are rewarded for making "good" decisions. The side with more people who agree should get more points. People could vote for or against ideas. People could submit websites that agree and websites that disagree. The algorithm could take into account the percentage of people who agree that the website actually agrees or disagrees with an idea and the Google Rank of that idea to assign added points to the idea. Ideas with more reasons to agree with them would get more points. Ideas with fewer reasons to disagree with them would get more points. Reasons that have more reasons to agree with them would get more points. Reasons that have fewer reasons to disagree with them would get more points. The goal of the algorithm is to put the best ideas to the top. I think it would be cool if each user could say which things they want to pay attention to. That way if one user respects authorizes, like people with degrees. Eventually this will evolve into a form of artificial intelligence, which we will call 'Collective Intelligence.' People will then be able to say that they have mapped out all possible reasons for agreeing with, or disagreeing with every moral, political, and economic decision. Then when all of these reasons are mapped out, society will get to the work of evaluating the validity of each view. These validities will be traded on a stock market much like the DJI, were if you buy an opinion for cheep (unpopular) and it gains in popularity, then you will be able to sell it at a profit. The only way that AI will truly work to benefit mankind is when its developers combine the advantages of humans and computers. Users could organize their post as "reasons to agree" or "reasons to disagree".
Users could submit "probable motivation of those who agree" or "those who disagree"
The idea stock exchange could become better than Slashdot.
Post
method, we should use the: post Reasons to agree #1 Reasons to disagree #1 Reasons to agree #2 Reasons to disagree #2 Reasons to agree #3 Reasons to disagree #3
3. The problem with the way Slashdot works now is that progress is never made. A conversation string is recorded, but that is just one of infinite possible conversations that could have taken place with that subject. For instance, someone post something on Slashdot, and typically someone will post a reason why they disagree with the original idea, and then someone else will post a reason why they disagree with the second idea. After a few post some good ideas may have been brought up, but there is no way to keep it all organized, except chronologically. But most people have more than just one reason for believing a conclusion. And just because someone brings up a good reason not to come to that conclusion, the original person probably won't change their mind. How could each of his reasons be evaluated independently. The way Slashdot is currently organized this is impossible. However if they simply let people submit reasons to agree or disagree to an idea, and if they put these in different columns, the whole process of debate would improve. Eventually people could evaluate each reason to agree with or disagree with the idea, and the best reasons would go to the top.
The idea stock exchange could become better than the Foresight Exchange.
This website is severely limiting itself by focusing on predictions and trying to verify weather or not these predictions will be able to be judged as coming true or not.
With the real stock market their is not death to a stock that is based on a certain time. The stock dies if the underlining principles are not sound.
And the whole purpose of my website is to implement the virtues of conflict resolution into online stock markets, effectively merging the online stock market with a brand new kind of discussion board. A discussion boards that organizes the best reasons to agree or disagree with a prediction or just a belief. This involves listing the reasons to agree or disagree, the interest of the apposing sides, etc.
I also personally hate the navigational structure. It is not intuitive. There aught to be a more intuitive way to browse to the idea.
The idea stock exchange could become better than those stupid polls, where TV stations or other news outlets tell you to vote for or against some stupid question.
When we step back and try to compare this web site (Idea Stock Exchange) to other things out there are lots of analogies come to mind. This web site is like a continuous poll that runs 24 hours a day. It is much like a discussion board, but more dynamic. Also polls don't allow people to post reasons why they are for or against an idea.
The Idea Stock Exchange lets people post reasons why they agree or disagree, and lots other people post reasons why they disagree with their reasons to agree or disagree!
It's like a 21 century poll.
Who cares what people think, who don't have any reasons to think the way they think? The idea stock exchange could be very similar to the regular stock market.
The Idea Stock Exchange is a hybrid of many things. My belief is that we should be able to invest money in an idea, just like we do in the stock market.
Gambling is sort of like like investing in an idea. When gamble on sports, you are investing money in the belief that your team will win. You are investing money in an idea.
The stock market isn't much different. Investing in the stock market is kind of like investing in the idea. You are investing in the belief that your stock will go up in price. The Idea Stock Exchange is much like a stock exchange in that it tracks the rise and fall of the popularity of ideas, much like the stock exchange tracks the popularity of companies.
Like nature the Idea Stock Exchange promotes the survival of the fittest. To continue the theme of a stock exchange each position could get an Idea Executive Officer, who is in charge of maintaining the web site. His job would be to drum up support for his cause. Perhaps George Bush would become an IEO for the belief that we should lower taxes. I can see them on CNN talking about their position much like CEO’s talk about their stock, “I think we are going to be doing much better, in the 3rd quarter of this year, after people pay their taxes.”
Perhaps the IEO could get paid revenues from advertising on the site for his position. He could make editorial comments or make the categories for additions to his web site to go into.
There are many things that could be done to make this web site better. In the business world a major concern is a monopoly. Perhaps a business only succeed because it succeeds in the past, even though a different company may be better for consumer. It is foreseeable too that on our web site that some ideas will become popular, and stay popular. Much like a business with a monopoly, it may bee seen that it gets preferred treatment, because it is at the top. This could be overcome by having a section, much like the business world that talks about good new ideas.
However none of this is a new idea. For example the Foresight Exchange allows you to invest fake money in different predictions. Also Robin Hanson has been promoting such ideas for years http://hanson.gmu.edu/home.html. However, I do have something to add, so keep reading!
What I propose, that is different than anything else out there, is a system where the validity of ideas can be evaluated before you invest in them! We should be able to post reasons to agree or disagree with an idea. These reasons should go to two separate columns called "reasons to agree" and "reasons to disagree". An improvement would be able to submit reasons to agree or disagree with the reasons to agree or disagree! And so on.
If this system was implemented you would have an idea, with all of the best reasons to agree or disagree, on the same page, in descending order!
A website that organizes reasons to agree and disagree with an idea into separate columns, and promotes the best ideas to the top of each column, could eventually attain a sort of artificial intelligence.
The algorithm would be the key to AI. The rest of the formatting would just give the AI ways of evaluating information, just like Google's algorithm relies on the formatting of the internet (links) to figure out which sites are better.
You could say that our decision making capability is what makes us intelligent.
Humans aren't one entity, we are billions of brain cells, all acting independently. Our DNA has us programmed.
The ability to make decisions isn't something that only human's can do.
A good idea promoting algorithm could start its road to AI by promoting good ideas, then learning what a good idea is, and then coming up with it's own good ideas.
In the future, it could learn for itself what makes an idea "good".
There are lots of ways that, with some good formatting, and current technology that we could build an algorithm that promotes good ideas.
We could harness the power of education by letting experts have a louder voice on our website.
Each idea would get more points if it was submitted from the e-mail address of a professor with a degree in the subject mater that is being discussed. For instance if someone said that Abraham Lincoln was an idiot. And someone disagreed, and someone else agreed. If the person that disagreed had a degree in history and the idea was submitted to the history section, then the person who disagreed (the professor) would win. The more prestigious the school, the more points. Prestigious would be ranked by the US News report, or some other un-biased judge. I don't care about you people that say, "The smartest people don't always make the best decisions." We are talking about percentages. Of course the smartest people don't always make the best decisions, but they would tend to make better decisions that stupid or uneducated people.
Google groups, http://groups.google.com, should allow people to respond to an idea by submitting their comments to two separate columns; "Reasons to agree" and "reasons to disagree".
This would lead to more order.
This would allow Google to organize information better, which is their stated goal.
This would allow Google to have people evaluate the validity of the top reasons to agree with an idea, on a scale from 1 to 10 before they can submit a reason to disagree with the idea.
This will allow Google to build the best ran discussion groups, where good behavior is rewarded.
For instance Google could build user profiles, similar to e-bay user profiles, but that would show the tendency of a user to consider the others side of an argument. For instance you could see the average "validity vote" or the validity assigned to a reasons to agree by the individual who is submitting a reasons to disagree with an idea. Some users might always assign a 0 to the validity vote of apposing ideas. If these people always said the reasons to disagree with them had absolutely now validity, these people would be considered narrow minded or close minded, and should not be given as much validity in a system that is supposed to promote the best ideas. Mike Laub:
Yahoo! Music Unlimited - Access over 1 million songs. Try it free. September 28 reasons = votes = links = algorithmGoogle uses links between web pages as a sort of vote for a web page. So the more web pages that link to you, it's like more people are voting for your web page. But the cool part is that Google doesn't give each link an equal weight. If more websites vote for your website, your website must be good, therefore your links count more. From a fairness stance it is not very democratic. Everyone does not have an equal vote. But in another sense it is democratic. If you are able to convince other people that your website is good, they will be more likely to link to your website, and this will increase your website's page rank, and therefore your voice. I think it would be possible to create an algorithm that substitutes links for reasons to agree. Lets say you have an idea with reasons to agree and reasons to disagree. Each reason to agree would give points to the idea, and each reasons to disagree would take away points. But just like Google, each of these reasons could have different weight, based on how many reasons their are to agree with them. And each of these reasons could have a different weight based on the number of reasons to agree or disagree with them, and so on forever. Just like Google. I think promoting good ideas is more important than promoting good websites. Mike Laub:
__________________________________________________ Foresight Exchange
This page is very similar to what I want to create. However I see some obvious problems:
This website is severely limiting itself by focusing on predictions and trying to verify weather or not these predictions will be able to be judged as coming true or not.
With the real stock market their is not death to a stock that is based on a certain time. The stock dies if the underlining principles are not sound.
And the whole purpose of my website is to implement the virtues of conflict resolution into online stock markets, effectively merging the online stock market with a brand new kind of discussion board. A discussion boards that organizes the best reasons to agree or disagree with a prediction or just a belief. This involves listing the reasons to agree or disagree, the interest of the apposing sides, etc.
I also personally hate the navigational structure. It is not intuitive. There aught to be a more intuitive way to browse to the idea. Mike Laub:
__________________________________________________ It is good to use humor in religious works of art.
Mike Laub:
Yahoo! for Good Click here to donate to the Hurricane Katrina relief effort. September 27 McD
Slideshow |
Print at Home |
Order Prints |
Save to: My Yahoo! Photos or
My Computer
Click a photo to view a larger version on Yahoo! Photos. See links above for more options.
Mike Laub:
The larger versions of these photos will be available until December 26, 2005 (90 days)
Share your pictures with PhotoMail from Yahoo! Mail. Learn More
Go to Yahoo! Photos
September 26 Shoe
Slideshow |
Print at Home |
Order Prints |
Save to: My Yahoo! Photos or
My Computer
Click a photo to view a larger version on Yahoo! Photos. See links above for more options.
The larger versions of these photos will be available until December 25, 2005 (90 days)
Share your pictures with PhotoMail from Yahoo! Mail. Learn More
Go to Yahoo! Photos
September 25 Jews vs. Arabs
Mike Laub:
Yahoo! for Good Click here to donate to the Hurricane Katrina relief effort. Best Solution to the conflict between America & the TerroristMeet the needs of the terrorist
Mike Laub:
Yahoo! for Good Click here to donate to the Hurricane Katrina relief effort. Society should reward good behavior and punish pad behaviorType of rewards that government could use for good behavior
Type of punishments that government could use for good behavior
Types of behaviors that should be rewarded
Types of behaviors that should be punished
Mike Laub:
__________________________________________________ Weighted Voting - Giving people different weight to their votes
Just because this would be complicated does not mean that it shouldn't be done. Einstein said, "Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler." Their is no reason to punish all felons equally, when it comes to not having the right to vote.
Mike Laub:
__________________________________________________ September 24 Google's biggest move yet!Google has just made its most exciting announcement to date!
For more information go to:
http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2005/09/putting-crowd-wisdom-to-work.html
I think Robin Hanson also deserves to have his name mentioned, when talking about innovators in Idea Futures. Check out this link.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robin_Hanson
However, putting crowd wisdom to work should involve more than what any of these individuals advocate.
If we really wanted to put crowd wisdom to work we would allow the crowd to post reasons to agree or disagree with different prices (too high, or too low, or $0.33 is right on).
These reasons for a higher or lower price would go to separate columns.
People could then post reasons to agree or disagree with the reasons. Reasons to agree could be considered a vote for the price. And reasons disagree would be a vote for a lower or higher price.
Reasons with more reasons to agree with them, would get a higher rank (just like the Google algorithm, except reasons would take the place of links).
This is important for us to do, because if we are going to ever invest money in ideas, we need a good place to investigate an idea’s fundamentals, just like you need to investigate a company’s fundamentals before investing in them. Current debate or discussion groups are simply insufficient.
First of all we need a system that promotes good reasons to agree or disagree with a certain price. Current discussion boards or debate forums treat all reasons & ideas the same. They place them in the forum in the chronological order they came in. That would be OK if you were dealing with experts that knew what they were talking about, but online you are dealing with a lot of non-quality opinions. A non-quality opinion is an idea with very few reasons to agree with it, and lots of reasons to disagree with it. But this is a simplification. The real definition of a non quality opinion requires you to put your thinking cap on stick with me for a while.
Previously I said, “A non-quality opinion is an idea with very few reasons to agree with it, and lots of reasons to disagree with it. But this is a simplification.” Because of human nature we tend to think of the exception to the rule. The exception to my definition would be an idea with a few very good reasons to agree with it, and lots of poor reasons to disagree with it.
This problem can be solved by using an algorithm similar to Google’s web page ranking algorithm. I like to call my algorithm an idea ranking algorithm. My idea ranking algorithm requires a specific format to work, just like Google’s. Google’s page ranking algorithm requires links. It looks at links like a vote, so that it’s like a web page having lots of votes, if it has lots of links to it. And links from web pages with lots of links to it, mean more. My idea ranking algorithm requires a forum in which people can submit reasons to agree or disagree with the idea. And then they can submit reasons to agree or disagree with those reasons. Thus reasons with lots of reasons to agree with them and fewer reasons to disagree with them will carry more weight, similar to WebPages with lots of links to them.
I believe if Google created this forum in which to debate the price of different ideas, it could become the internets best content provider, instead of just a way of getting to other WebPages.
If each idea had a rank, and each reasons to agree or disagree had a rank, you could track an ideas popularity over time, just like people track the performance of a stock. You could instantly pull up the top 10 reasons to agree or disagree with each idea.
Think of what this would do for world politics. Instead of the Jews going to their own website, and the Arabs going to their own websites, where only data that supports their side is discussed, they will go to the same website. Finely the website will bring those with defend opinions together.
Mike Laub:
__________________________________________________ |
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|